Abstracto

The Use of the Dynamic Fuzzy Method in Ecosystem Modeling

Ralf Wieland, Rainer Bruggemann, Peter Kasprzak

A concept is rendered to replace the right-hand side of a set of ordinary differential equations with fuzzy models. This modeling approach allows stake- holder/expert knowledge to be included in the model development, leading to a white box approach and high credibility of models. An additional effect is that models are simple and stable. The system behavior can be controlled flexibly by fuzzy models; a number of examples are presented in the paper. Stability is investigated using the Lyapunov exponent. The approach is demonstrated using a simple aquatic ecosystem model and supported by open source software, namely the “Spatial Analysis and Modeling Tool” (SAMT), with additional modules written in Python.